I’m really curious why Biden thinks a negotiated end is likely. The situation looks really bad for Russia from where I’m sitting, and if that doesn’t change how would a negotiation work? The Americans have awesome intelligence on Russia, but they also have nuclear fears that might lead upper leadership to do some wishful thinking.
Ukraine has been in war economy mode for over a year now, and it’s not sustainable long term while all of the sanctions on Russia haven’t crippled their economy to the point of being unable to continue fighting. Their ability to fight Russia is largely dependent on continued western aid, largely from the US, which has become increasingly controversial politically. The current counteroffensive has been a slow, long grind without much in the way of territorial gain so far, further decreasing popular support for Ukraine in the west. If Russian sympathizers in the US government manage to block aid to Ukraine before they are able to break Russia’s defenses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will run out of funding and equipment and be forced to negotiate best case scenario, or be overrun by the Russians worst case scenario. It is still a long time until the next US election so they should still fight, but unless they’re able to make dramatic gains like they did previously, Ukraine may have to negotiate eventually
In the US it’s controversial in the sense that there’s 40% of the stakeholders that want to stop, and 60% that wouldn’t dream of it. Just “controversial” makes it sound like there’s wide-ranging debate. As far as I know the rest of the West is still onboard too, and they’re not a negligible source of aid, just somewhat smaller than the US.
It would be a big blow to lose the US, though, you’re right about that.
Russia has like 3.5 times the population of Ukraine, so Ukraine has to take the advantage with tactics and weapons. Unfortunately, Russia is getting war material from other countries, most notably Iran, North Korea, and China, all three of whom have focused significant parts of their economy on preparing for war, and none of whom like the West. Europe still depends on Russian gas, and significant parts of the world still depend on grain, gas, and fertilizer from Russia.
For Ukraine’s part, none of the West want to escalate into full-blown war with Russia, and the US Republicans are looking forward to the day when they can stop supporting Ukraine - a day which may come in as little as 18 months.
Russia is getting war material from other countries, most notably Iran, North Korea, and China
China too? I thought they were basically sticking to non-lethal aid.
Europe still depends on Russian gas
Come to think of it, I haven’t heard an update on that in a while. I know Germany was building LNG ports at a mind-boggling pace. I have to assume at some point they won’t be strictly dependent anymore, but I don’t know when.
and the US Republicans are looking forward to the day when they can stop supporting Ukraine - a day which may come in as little as 18 months.
That’s a big variable too. What’s the West without the US? We may find out. My government has already mentioned they are gaming out scenarios.
Gas:
European Union countries have increased their imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia compared with before the Ukraine war, despite the EU’s aim to quit Russian fossil fuels within a few years, an analysis by campaigners showed. Source.
China: they’re relying on so-called “dual use” items: drones to spy and drop munitions, night-vision goggles for snipers, “sports equipment” that’s actually bulletproof vests and helmets, that kind of thing. They’re also supplying “spare parts” that can be used to repair or even assemble military equipment from scratch.
And LNG is just a fraction of the total gas import and not representative.
