Security analysts and former officials said the damage Israel had inflicted on Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia, had stripped Tehran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack.
Israel has a freer hand to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April, security analysts and former officials say, when its retaliation for the previous Iranian attack was a largely symbolic strike against an air-defense installation in Iran.
In April, Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.
But after launching a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has weakened Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran.
And conversely, we’re still trying to babysit Ukraine’s efforts to stop Russia from attacking them.
The mental gymnastics are getting pretty difficult to ignore, tbh.